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Creators/Authors contains: "Skerker, Jennifer"

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  1. Abstract Uncertainty arising from climate change poses a central challenge to the long‐term performance of many engineered water systems. Water supply infrastructure projects can leverage different types of flexibility, in planning, design, or operations, to adapt infrastructure systems in response to climate change over time. Both flexible planning and design enable future capacity expansion if‐and‐when needed, with flexible design proactively incorporating physical design changes that enable retrofits. All three forms of flexibility have not previously been analyzed together to explicitly assess their relative value in mitigating cost and water supply reliability risk. In this paper, we propose a new framework to evaluate combinations of flexible planning, design, and operations. We develop a nested stochastic dynamic optimization approach that jointly optimizes dam development and operating policies under dynamic climate uncertainty. We demonstrate this approach on a reservoir project near Mombasa, Kenya. Our results find that flexible operations have the greatest potential to reduce costs. Flexible design and flexible planning can amplify the value of flexible operations under higher discounting scenarios and when initial infrastructure capacities are undersized. This approach provides insight on the climate change and techno‐economic conditions under which flexible planning, design, and operations can be best leveraged individually or in combination to reduce climate change uncertainty risks in water supply infrastructure projects. 
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  2. Equity is core to sustainability, but current interventions to enhance sustainability often fall short in adequately addressing this linkage. Models are important tools for informing action, and their development and use present opportunities to center equity in process and outcomes. This Perspective highlights progress in integrating equity into systems modeling in sustainability science, as well as key challenges, tensions, and future directions. We present a conceptual framework for equity in systems modeling, focused on its distributional, procedural, and recognitional dimensions. We discuss examples of how modelers engage with these different dimensions throughout the modeling process and from across a range of modeling approaches and topics, including water resources, energy systems, air quality, and conservation. Synthesizing across these examples, we identify significant advances in enhancing procedural and recognitional equity by reframing models as tools to explore pluralism in worldviews and knowledge systems; enabling models to better represent distributional inequity through new computational techniques and data sources; investigating the dynamics that can drive inequities by linking different modeling approaches; and developing more nuanced metrics for assessing equity outcomes. We also identify important future directions, such as an increased focus on using models to identify pathways to transform underlying conditions that lead to inequities and move toward desired futures. By looking at examples across the diverse fields within sustainability science, we argue that there are valuable opportunities for mutual learning on how to use models more effectively as tools to support sustainable and equitable futures. 
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